A 3-year prognostic score for adults with cystic fibrosis.

Abstract

BACKGROUND Therapeutic progress in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) has resulted in improved prognosis over the past decades. We aim to reevaluate prognostic factors of CF and provide a prognostic score to predict the risk of death or lung transplantation (LT) within a 3-year period in adult patients. METHODS We developed a logistic model using data from the French CF Registry and combined the coefficients into a prognostic score. The discriminative abilities of the model and the prognostic score were assessed by c-statistic. The prognostic score was validated using a 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS The risk of death or LT within 3years was related to eight characteristics. The development and the validation provided excellent results for the prognostic score; the c-statistic was 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. CONCLUSION The score developed to predict 3-year death or LT in adults with CF might be useful for clinicians to identify patients requiring specialized evaluation for LT.

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